Manifold observations and predictions for India, US, China
- In Indian parliamentary elections, Narendra Modi’s coalition will win and Modi will return as prime minister. His financial reforms (like demonetization) were a disaster and caused a huge inconvenience to regular people and he is very vulnerable. But opposition is split and has no charismatic and credible leader. So people will come around and vote for Narendra Modi. Rahul Gandhi will never become PM. His sister Priyanka Gandhi’s chart shows more promise.
- Narendra Modi’s second term will be better than his first. In an increasingly unstable word, he will keep things relatively stable in India. He will also win a third term, but install a younger PM in the middle of third term and retire from politics.
- The caricatures of Modi by both liberal media and right-wing media are incorrect. He is a sincere, humble, honest, pious and patriotic man. But, people around him in his own party are not. As he makes their life miserable, they will be conspiring against him.
- Trump’s time is decent right now. But June-Sep is terrible for him, with a chance of losing power. If he politically survives that phase (which is quite possible), he will lose in 2020.
He will spend 2020-2034 in a deep depression – dejected, disturbed, isolated, frustrated and angry. In spite of his current success, history will not be kind to him.
- Just as Nixon was the key to China’s new relationship with the US and a resulting rise, Trump will be the key to China’s soured relationship with the US and a resulting fall. More on this under the “China” section.
- US economy will be moving erratically and looking for a direction for a while, but the next couple of years are not good overall. There is a recession in the near future.
- As Trump faces troubles at home, he will look outside of the US to get some relief. Also, he will increasingly see war as a means to ensure re-election. The temptation will increase closer to the 2020 election.
- Iran will be the epicentre of a confrontation involving Israel, Iran and major world powers. A war may break out in the second half of 2019 or 2020.
- There will also be some tensions in the far east, with China trying to assert itself and trampling some western interests. There will also be a major cyber war between US and China.
- China’s influence in the world will continue to increase in the coming few years. The USA will continue to spar on trade and other things and make China unhappy. China will refuse to come down to its knees and take USA head on. China’s exertion of soft power around the world will continue to ruffle US feathers. This will develop into a new cold war between the USA and China.
- As real wars – military and cyber – break in the world, the world economy the be destabilized. This will have unforeseen chain reactions and China’s prosperity will screech to a halt.
- As economic troubles intensify, dissatisfaction and rebellion that have been hiding under the surface in Chinese society will come to the surface. There may be a people’s revolution in China and China may break into many pieces.
After dominating the world and seeming like the next numero uno, China will recede into the background as Russia did a few decades bacK.
- I always maintained that North Korea is not sincere in peace negotiations and they were just playing games with amateurish Trump who thinks he is a great deal maker though he has no clue on how to negotiate. North Korea just bought time to perfect their weapons. After all, they started to show their true colours recently.
- After playing Trump along for some more months, North Korea will simply align with China. They may even cooperate with China in the coming cyber warfare.
While may be a lot of tension between China and North Korea axis on one hand and US allies in the region on the other, a major war is unlikely – only a cyber war is likely. As said before, the middle east will be the theatre of a major war.
NEW WORLD ORDER
Over the next decade, China will simply collapse under its own weight, after growing for a while and seeming like that next superpower. US will lose its influence but will remain powerful (much like what happened to the UK in the late 1940s and 1950s). Staying mostly out of these conflicts and jumping in only towards the end, India will suddenly rise and become a superpower (like the US in the 1950s and 1960s). US and India will build a close partnership.
After the fall of communism and capitalism, India will provide leadership with a new economic model based on fairness and prosperity. A new dharmik capitalism will evolve and flourish for a century or more. World will also become more spiritual during that century.